CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-11T10:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42621/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T14:53Z (-5.58h, +4.55h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2025/11/11 10:10Z Plane of Sky 1: 12:20Z; 21.5Rsun; NW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 13:00Z; 21.5Rsun; SE Direction POS Difference: 00:40 POS Midpoint: 12:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 2:30 Numeric View/Impact Type: +2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.48 Travel Time: ~11.48 * 2:30 = 28:43 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-12T14:53Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5 / 5/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj Forecast Creation Time: 2025/11/11 13:55ZLead Time: 26.75 hour(s)
Difference: 3.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-11-11T16:07Z
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